Ultra-stable cotton prices fluctuating market

19,800 yuan, which is an auspicious number for cotton trader Xie Changfu (a pseudonym). Although there were many uncertainties in the textile industry in 2012, Xie Changfu appeared to be rather calm because of the country's closing price. This is not as embarrassing as at the beginning of last year.

In the past year, almost all cotton traders in Pengze County, a cotton-rich province, suffered losses. Xie Changfu was no exception. He roughly calculated that the loss of all the lint mills in this small county is about 200 million yuan, and many lint factories It is closed because it cannot stay.

"Last year, during the process of picking cotton, the market made a profit of 3,000 yuan to 5,000 yuan per ton, but it was not enough to pay attention to the timing of selling. A ton of lint was a loss of more than 10,000, and most people suffered from losses. In the past few months, the price of cotton has gradually stabilized, and now a ton of lint can only make 500 to 600 yuan, although the profit is thin, but the risk is reduced.” Xie Changfu told the “First Financial Daily” reporter.

Today, the cotton market finally bid farewell to the ups and downs of deformity, and gradually return to rationality. In the past two years, China's cotton prices have fluctuated wildly and the entire textile chain has been stunned. In May 2010, the price of cotton soared from 17,000 yuan per ton. In November 2010 and February 2011, it rose to nearly 35,000 yuan per ton. The high price of cotton has brought unprecedented difficulties to Chinese textile companies. Data from the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology shows that in the first 7 months of 2011, the overall profitability of SMEs was less than 3%, and 60% to 70% of SMEs face serious difficulties in survival.

However, the price rose quickly and quickly. The cotton price dropped all the way from the high price of more than 30,000 yuan/ton last March to about 19,000 yuan/ton in August. Under this circumstance, the state started to start buying and storing new cotton from September 8 last year. The price for storage and storage was 19,800 yuan per ton, and the cotton price gradually stabilized and stabilized.

“At present, the market is not very demanding. There are very few textile factories that come to purchase and pick up goods. The price of cotton in the market is lower than the national collection and storage price. Our lint mainly goes into the treasury and can also be delivered to the bank by means of the invoice.” Xie Changfu I am not worried about the cotton market this year.

In contrast, downstream textile and apparel companies are anxious. The debt crisis in Europe continues to be cloudy, the exchange rate is still fluctuating, and the cost of domestic labor continues to increase, which affects the operation of textile and garment companies.

Affected by rising prices, demand for consumption in 2011 will slow down slightly. From January to November, the retail sales of clothing products above designated size in the country increased by 23.9% year-on-year. After deducting the price increase, the actual growth rate of clothing retail sales from January to November decreased by 4.4 percentage points from the same period of last year, which was a decrease from the first quarter of 2011. 0.4%.

The growth in exports is close to “zero” or even negative growth. Last year, China exported 247.96 billion U.S. dollars in textiles and clothing, an increase of 20.04%. This is mainly because price increases support export growth. According to industry estimates, from January to November 2011, the export price of textiles and garments increased by 20.4% year-on-year, and the driving effect on the growth of total exports reached 98%. Excluding price factors, the number of textile and apparel exports from January to November increased by only 0.5% year-on-year, of which the number of garment exports only increased by 0.1%.

In January of this year, due to weak demand in the international market, the Spring Festival holidays, and the transfer of some export orders to peripheral low-cost countries, China’s textile and apparel exports totaled US$21.519 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 0.42%, and the first negative growth after the financial crisis.

Lu Longsheng, chairman of Shanghai Pegasus Import and Export Co., Ltd., said in an interview with the newspaper that exports were more or less temporary, such as more than 20 million US dollars in the week before the Spring Festival, but only 400,000 US dollars in the first week after the holiday. Looking at the situation, the trend is uncertain throughout the year. “It is tentatively expected that our exports will grow in single digits this year, but it may also decline slightly. Last year was a decrease in US orders, and this year it was the European market, but the Southeast Asian market is still good.” Lu Longsheng said.

Zhou Xiaonan, deputy general manager of Ningbo Huamei Wire & Cable Co., Ltd., said that a stable cotton price will not relieve the pressure on the company. European orders are too boring. On the one hand, orders have been reduced. On the other hand, the price cannot be contacted. The cost is still rising.

Lu Longsheng also mentioned that the shortage of workers and workers' costs are still plaguing the textile industry. The monthly salary of coastal workers has risen to about 3,000 yuan. The company has transferred orders from Jiangsu, Zhejiang and Shanghai to factories in Jiangxi, and the purchase cost has been reduced by 5% to 10%. In addition, it also started to force the domestic market and acquired the “Double Ship” brand, which is paving the way for expanding domestic sales.

Wang Qiang, a senior analyst at First Textile Network, believes that this year's textile and clothing market may not be as good as last year, the domestic market is relatively stable, and exports will drop first and then rise. The year may be negative growth, and garment exports are expected to decline by about 5%.